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  Analysis: Conclave a Question of Numbers

By Roland Flamini
Washington Times [Washington DC]
April 5, 2005

The pope is the sole leader of the Roman Catholic Church and at the same time the absolute ruler of Europe's smallest independent state. There is no permanent representational body governing the church, and no parliament in Vatican City. Yet the pope is elected through a democratic process that would be familiar to any U.S. politician.

Andrew Greeley, the Catholic priest and best-selling author, calls it "the political event par excellence" and compares it to "American conventions of the old days."

The pope is elected by the cardinals meeting in a conclave. "Clave" is Latin for key, and the electoral body is locked in until one of them receives a two-thirds plus one majority.

Voting is held in the Sistine Chapel beneath Michelangelo's magnificent fresco of the Last Judgement. Each of the 117 voting cardinals sits in an assigned seat with a kneeler in front of him, and, over his head, a small canopy that can be raised or lowered with a cord. When a pope is elected all the canopies are lowered, except his own -- and the election reverts to its ancient origins as the cardinals pay homage to the new pontiff by prostrating themselves in succession and kissing his foot.

Pope John Paul II's long illness has given the cardinals almost two years in which to think about the voting -- which could begin as early as the close of next week -- and to discuss discreetly the qualities they should be looking for in the next pope. Individual candidates are barred from campaigning for themselves, but there are always supporters on hand to quietly advance their cause.

An epic papacy like Pope John Paul's overshadows its possible successors, and in some cases outlives them. So no obvious candidate stands out either to continue Pope John Paul's conservative legacy, or to break away from it.

In his almost 27 years as pope, the late pope created 232 cardinals, but only those under 80 can vote in the conclave. All but three of the latter received their red cardinal's hat from John Paul II, so the group is considered exceptionally homogenous in its views, particularly on doctrinal matters.

The absence of any strong candidate is reflected in the pre-conclave speculation which centers on specific situations and then identifies the cardinal or cardinals best qualified to deal with them. This pattern emerged in 1979, when the main anxiety was countering the communist threat and Cardinal Karol Wojtyla of Krakow was chosen as the pope best qualified to deal with that threat.

In many earlier conclaves it was the man that dictated the choice, and not the other way around. In 1963, Cardinal Giovanni Battista Montini was the strong odds-on favorite going into the conclave. He emerged from it as Pope Paul VI. And in 1939, no other "papabile" (literally someone capable of becoming pope) was mentioned besides Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli who became Pius XII.

Today, there is talk that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, 78, would be the man if the conclave opted for a short-term papacy to consolidate the Catholic church's conservative direction set by the late pope. Media reports usually label Ratzinger as the enforcer of doctrine. As head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith he was a powerful conservative voice, and one of Pope John Paul's closest adviser. Many red hats were bestowed to clerics who were under Ratzinger's patronage; but he also has many enemies, particularly in Europe and the United States.

If the cardinals want to focus on the problems of the Third World they could elect the Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze, 72, who would bring to the papacy the added value of having been responsible for the Vatican's relations with Islam -- a major issue facing the Catholic church today. More likely they would opt for a Latin American since 40 percent of the world's 1.1 billion Catholics live in South America. Brazil, with over 200 million people is the largest Catholic country on Earth. The Latin American front-runners are Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the 68-year-old Jesuit archbishop of Buenos Aires, who often rides to his cathedral on a bus, has supported public protests during the Argentinean financial crisis, and is widely admired both for his learning and his charisma; and Brazilian Cardinal Claudio Hummes, the brilliant, forceful archbishop of Sao Paulo, who is outspoken about social justice for the poor, but hardly a liberal on theological issues.

Meanwhile Italian hopes of regaining the papacy seem to be pinned on Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, a moral theologian and highly successful archbishop of Milan, Italy's largest diocese. More recently, however, the name of Cardinal Angelo Scola, the patriarch of Venice has also surfaced. He is a media-savvy intellectual, who has written about bioethics, another of the pressing issues that will confront the new pope. If the cardinals reach down into the younger generation a likely choice would be Cardinal Cristoph Schonborn, 60, the archbishop of Vienna. Schonborn -- a Dominican friar -- distinguished himself in church circles with the way he handled the fallout from the downfall of his predecessor, Cardinals Hans Herman Groer, following charges of child abuse. Many observers think he has the organizational talent to reinvigorate the central government of the church after Pope John Paul's long infirmity.

As with all elections the selection of a new pope boils down to numbers. To be elected, a candidate needs 79 votes. And there's the challenge. For example, there are 21 Latin American cardinals and 11 from Africa, hardly enough to influence the outcome of the conclave. Strong support from the 58 European cardinals -- the largest regional bloc -- would be crucial for a Third World cardinal to get elected, possibly with help from the 14 North American cardinals.

So assuming the Latin Americans and the African manage to vote as a bloc, the question is: how many Europeans or American cardinals (or others from the 13 Asians and South Asians) would buy into such a politically correct solution? But as Greeley, who has covered the past two papal elections, points out, "a presentable South American candidate could be a major image victory for the church and generate a sense of a brave new beginning."

An Italian candidate who (ideally) starts with all 20 Italian cardinals' votes -- still the largest national group in the conclave, but fewer than ever before -- could possibly attract Italy's traditional conclave allies the Spanish-Portuguese-Latin American bloc of 26 votes, but would still have to find another 33 votes.

For the first time in many years the United States cardinals enter the conclave with diminished prestige as "king makers." In 1979 Cardinal John Krol of Philadelphia was reportedly a leading campaigner for Cardinal Wojtyla. In other circumstances a powerful American point man in the coming conclave would have been Cardinal Bernard Law. He was influential both among U.S. cardinals but also in Latin America and in the Vatican. But that was before Law was forced to resign as archbishop of Boston in 2002 because of the sexual abuse crisis, and now holds a largely ceremonial post in the Vatican.

The pedophilia scandal, coupled with the U.S. hierarchy's support for the Iraq war, and later what many saw as the American bishops' interference in the 2004 presidential elections with their pronouncement on divorcees and Holy Communion, drew public criticism from other leading Catholic prelates, particularly in South America.

The irony is that whoever the next pontiff turns out to be, scant details of the deliberations that led to his election are likely to be known. On Monday, the cardinals took the usual secrecy oath on what happens in the coming conclave. And in an institution that leaks like any other, that is one event on which little ever dribbles out.

 
 

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