Running the numbers behind Pope Francis’ election

ROME
National Catholic Reporter

by John L. Allen Jr. | Mar. 14, 2013

Rome —
On CNN’s “Connect the World” program on March 11, the day before the 2013 conclave opened, host Becky Anderson asked me a question about geographic blocs in the College of Cardinals.

Here’s what I said: “If there were a lone strong Latin American candidate, I think that guy would already have this race sewn up … The problem is, there isn’t just one plausible Latin American, there are several.”

As it turns out, I was half-right.

Although there were other compelling Latin American candidates heading into the voting, such as Brazilians Odilo Pedro Scherer and João Bráz de Aviz, as well as the Mexican Francisco Robles Ortega, a lone strong candidate from the region nevertheless emerged within five ballots, well under the 7.4 rounds of voting that form the statistical average for the previous nine conclaves.

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