UNITED STATES
Gold Derby
By Paul Sheehan
Dec 03 2015
Our 22 Oscar experts drawn from major media outlets have now seen all the top contenders (save for “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”) and have been busy updating their predictions. We have clear frontrunners in five of the eight top races. However, Director, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay are turning into real contests.
“Spotlight” has widened its lead for Best Picture, with 16 Experts backing it compared to three apiece for “The Martian” and “The Revenant.” That gives this docudrama chronicling the efforts of Boston Globe reporters to expose pedophile priests leading odds of 5/1 versus 15/2 for the others.
“Spotlight” helmer Tom McCarthy has 11 Experts predicting him to win Best Director; that is good enough for leading odds of 5/2. However, “The Martian” director Ridley Scott, who has lost this race three times, has the support of seven experts. And last year’s big winner for “Birdman,” Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has five of us in his corner. Both of them have odds of 4/1. McCarthy does look like a lock for Original Screenplay with 15 Experts predicting him and co-writer Josh Singer to win.
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