UNITED STATES
Crux
By John L. Allen Jr.
Associate editor December 6, 2015
Last week I was in Youngstown and Akron, Ohio, where I’ve been speaking at First Friday clubs for several years. My wife Shannon, who handles my speaking calendar, is very loyal to these folks, and insisted that I offer them something new and original.
In response, I did something that’s basically an act of madness: I delivered a set of predictions for 2016 regarding the almost metaphysically unpredictable Pope Francis.
Spousal obedience, as it turns out, trumped professional caution. Herewith, those five forecasts for a pope of surprises in the New Year.
1. The next US cardinal Francis names will be a shocker.
It’s not clear whether Francis will create new cardinals in 2016, or whether one of them would be an American. If so, however, it probably won’t be anyone people are expecting — Archbishop Jose Gomez of Los Angeles, for instance, or Blase Cupich in Chicago.
When distributing red hats, Francis likes to bypass the usual centers of power. In Italy, Turin and Venice don’t have cardinals, but Perugia and Ancona do. In the Philippines, Francis ignored Cebu and named a cardinal in Cotabato. In Haiti, he skipped the capital, Port-au-Prince, in favor of the small diocese of Les Cayes.
If there is a new American cardinal, look for him to be from some place out of the ordinary. One good candidate would be Bishop Gerald Kicanas in Tucson, Arizona, both to make a statement about the hardships of immigrants who cross the border there, and also to lift up a social justice-oriented bishop cut from the pope’s own cloth.
2. Francis will have a health issue.
So far, this pope has not had a serious health crisis. A bogus report in October of a benign brain tumor doesn’t count, since it fell apart almost as soon as it appeared.
On the other hand, Francis turns 79 on Dec. 17 and keeps up a schedule that would destroy people half his age. Those closest to Francis have long said they’re worried about the pope not taking care of himself, for instance by canceling his summer vacation at Castel Gandolfo. Watching him up close, he often seems visibly fatigued, and his struggles with sciatica seem more pronounced.
At some point, physical reality may assert itself and compel the pontiff to take some time off. If that happens, it won’t necessarily mean the end is near, but simply that he’s managing his time and energy more carefully.
3. The pope will be a player in the US elections.
Pope Francis is likely to emerge as a major factor in the US elections in 2016, an especially plausible prospect given that five of the GOP contenders are Catholic (Jeb Bush, Rick Santorum, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, and George Pataki; Bobby Jindal dropped out of the race in November).
One moment when the pope appears destined to inject himself into the race will come in February, when he travels to Mexico. The trip will feature a stop in Ciudad Juarez at the US/Mexico border, where Francis will make a major statement about immigration.
At that same moment, Americans will be heading to the polls in New Hampshire and Iowa. Media coverage will certainly draw the connection, turning the pontiff into a political point of reference.
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