Debunking ‘conventional’ conclave wisdom

VATICAN CITY
National Catholic Reporter

by John L. Allen Jr. | Mar. 1, 2013 All Things Catholic

Now that the papacy of Benedict XVI is over and the sede vacante has begun, the period before the white smoke rises over the Sistine Chapel will be filled with commentary and speculation about the looming conclave, much of it based on time-honored conventional wisdom about how these things work.

Here are three common bromides you’re likely to hear over and over again in coming days:

“He who enters as pope exits as a cardinal.” The idea is that too much attention before the fact can hurt more than it helps, and that the actual results of conclaves are always a surprise compared to what people had expected.

“You follow a fat pope with a thin one.” The gist is that after a particular style has had its day for a while, cardinals will be in the mood for something different, so they’ll elect a pope who contrasts with the previous one.

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