IRELAND
Paddy Power Blog
By Michael Kelly | Editor of the Irish Catholic newspaper
@MichaelKellyIC
Trying to predict who the next Pope will be is a notoriously tricky business. In the early 1990s as Pope John Paul II’s health declined, the renowned Vatican-watcher Peter Hebblethwaite wrote a book entitled The Next Pope. In the book he predicted John Paul’s imminent demise and speculated on who would succeed the Polish Pontiff. Unfortunately for him, Hebblethwaite died in 1994 causing wags in Rome to speculate that the Pope – who reigned for another 11 years – was working on a book to be titled The Next Peter Hebblethwaite!
Candidates for the Papacy tend to keep their desire for the job secret. When mentioned as ‘Papabile’ (a potential Pope) it is considered poor form not to dismiss one’s own chances. This may be due in part to the Italian proverb that “he who enters the conclave as a Pope always comes out as a cardinal”.
So, with the above-mentioned health warning in mind, who are the front-runners to replace Benedict XVI in Catholicism’s top job? Geography will be crucial. In 2005, many observers thought the cardinals would look to the developing world; instead, they opted to stick with Europe and elect Joseph Ratzinger. Indications are that they will look farther afield this time around.
1. Cardinal Angelo Scola, Italy (71) — 3/1
The Italians are pinning most of their hopes on Scola, he is one of the few Papabile that have an active presence on Twitter, almost a prerequisite now since Benedict took to the social networking site late last year. He is considered conservative and close to Italian politicians. He was hand-picked by Pope John Paul II to lead an institute in Rome leading the Church’s opposition to divorce, contraception, homosexuality and abortion. He worked as an adviser to Pope Benedict in his previous role in the Doctrine watchdog and is likely to lead the conservative charge in the conclave. He is a former Patriarch of Venice and now Archbishop of Milan – two dioceses that remarkably have produced five of the eight Popes who reigned during the 20th Century. That’s quite the record.
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